Saturday, March 6, 2010

Blog Link:  A Projection on the Guri Dam Level at The Devil's Excrement


January, 2009December, 2009
Comparison of Water Levels at Guri I Dam between January and December, 2009
Red Arrow on December Image Indicates January's Water Level

Miguel Octavio at The Devil's Excrement has an excellent post up today in which he brings an articulate use of quantitative analysis based upon the historical data of Guri's water levels matched against current trends in an attempt to determine whether the level of water in the Guri Dam reservoir, and it is Guri I he is examining here, will drop below the critical 240 meters level.  Miguel's conclusion is that the level will not be reached and that Guri will not have to be shut down.

Having a personal background in quantitative analysis as I do, I find Miguel's presentation to be fascinating.  I recall other occasions over the past few years when he has applied some very sound number crunching to other issues, especially pertaining to economic analysis, and I have a high degree of faith in both his skill and honesty.  I encourage everyone to read his "An attempt to answer the question of whether the critical level of the Guri dam will be reached" post, which he published today; Saturday, March 6.

By way of reference to my own coverage of the electrical power crisis in Venezuela, I will post the two links to my previous blog entries below:

The Coming Electrical Power Disaster in Venezuela

Venezuelan Electrical Power Crisis, Part II:  The Costs of Deprofessionalization and Corruption Under Chavez

And for the benefit of my readers, I am pleased to announce that my "Coming Electrical Power Disaster" blog entry was published at the Petroleum World website, which has generated some interesting commentary via my e-mail.  At least someone is reading.


Update, March 8, 12:07 P.M. - After a very lively and interesting discussion, Miguel has published a followup post to his original, "Some clarifications on the post of when the Guri dam will reach the critical level."  Miguel has slightly revised his earlier projection and is admittedly "a little less optimistic" than he was at first.  This second post may be more important than the first for its attention to new information he has received.  StJ


1 comment:

Marlon said...

That looks like approximately 50 feet in water displacement on that scale. Looks like that dam had lost 4 million gallons of water in just 11 months.

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